As opposed to looking ahead to the next couple week's and giving my opinion on why "Buffalo should sign Player X, trade Y assets for a return of Z etc.", I decided to highlight the four types of players I think the Sabres should/will pursue and to list some of the players that would fit the bill. Not to shoot down anyone else's specific ideas, but when it comes to a rebuild of this magnitude, up to a dozen options can fill a few major holes on the roster. So in order of importance, here are the four types of players I think Buffalo should pursue over the upcoming two weeks.
1. Starting Goalie
This one's pretty obvious, eh? Tim Murray has laid out his plans for goalie for this summer, describing it as "a moving plan. We would love to trade for a ‘youngish’ goalie. If that doesn’t work, we would trade for a real good short-term goalie who is older. If we could sign the best or second-best free agent goalie, we would be happy with that too". In my opinion, Tim Murray is definitely taking the right approach here, as a young goalie who can grow with the core is preferable to one that is a stopgap solution. But in either case, any goaltender that can be the full-time starter is preferable to entering next season with a platoon of Chad Johnson and Anders Lindback in net.
So who will the future starter of the Buffalo Sabres be? Tim Murray has claimed he's already talked to five teams about goaltending options, and I'd reasonably assume that at least three of them are the NY Rangers for Cam Talbot (as confirmed by Darren Dreger), LA Kings for Martin Jones (who the Sabres were rumored to be pursuing as part of a Tyler Myers trade back in February), and Tim Murray's old club the Ottawa Senators for either Robin Lehner or Craig Anderson (one of which will definitely be traded this offseason). If I were a betting man, I would guess that Murray has also talked to Vancouver about Eddie Lack and Anaheim about Frederik Andersen and John Gibson (although the Ducks' desire to go into next season with both makes a trade for either of them highly unlikely).
Not that 5v5 Sv% is a 'be all, end all' stat when evaluating goaltender quality, but given Martin Jones and Cam Talbot each have identical 5v5s of 93.43% over their brief NHL careers, either one in a trade would give the Sabres a long-term option in net. While Talbot has a larger sample size to base future performance off of than Jones (2,650 vs. 1,490 minutes), the high demand for Talbot (potentially costing a team a first round pick), the inability to extend Talbot (a 2016 UFA) until January 1st and Talbot being two years older than Jones would, in my opinion, make Jones a better value for Buffalo to pursue.
If acquiring either Jones or Talbot doesn't pan out for the Sabres, I would be happy with either Robin Lehner or Eddie Lack depending on what Buffalo does in the draft. Lehner has perhaps the greatest upside of the Sabres likely trade targets given he's only 23 years old. However, Lehner's below average performance in a limited sample size (perpuckalytics, a career 5v5 save % of 91.88% places him squarely between Scott Clemennsen and Martin Gerber) on an Ottawa team that has seen Craig Anderson and Andrew Hammond shine would give me a lot of concern. But if the Sabres take a goalie such as Ilya Samsonov or Matej Tomek with a high draft pick, then I would rather see Buffalo acquire Lack to give the Sabres average goaltending over the next few seasons than to have to ride the highs and lows of a Robin Lehner / Chad Johnson platoon in net.
In any scenario, I do not have any interest in Craig Anderson given he's already 34 and still has three years remaining on his deal, nor in Devan Dubynk at his current asking price. If Buffalo does go the veteran goaltender route, I would rather see them take a pass at signing Antii Niemi or trading for Jonas Hiller, who has just one year remaining on his deal with Calgary. But in any scenario, I don't have any concerns about Buffalo's goaltending next season given the surplus of options out there. What does concern me is Buffalo's ability to acquire a...
2. Two-way, top six right winger
Finding a top six right winger that can contribute on both sides of the ice will be the most elusive thing for the Sabres to find next season. Unless Patrick Kaleta is resigned, the Sabres' only natural right winger headed into next season will beBrian Gionta, with Tyler Ennis, Zemgus Girgensons and (assuming he's retained) Cody Hodgson able to play the position. Though the Sabres' pipeline of right wing prospects is promising (Justin Bailey, Nicholas Baptiste and Hudson Fasching), it'll be a couple seasons before any of them are expected to compete for a top six role. This is an area that, if properly addressed, would significantly help speed up Buffalo's rebuild.
If Buffalo were to go the UFA route to fill this hole, the name I would love to see them go after is Michael Frolik. While "Mr. Game 7" Justin Williams would be a sexier signing, Frolik is a younger option (just 27 years old) that, over the last two years, has become one of Winnipeg's best players at driving possession while being able to chip in 15-20 goals per season. He's also represented by Allan Walsh and, accordingly, is looking to ring the bell come July 1st, probably costing in excess of $5M per for 5 years. But similar to Anton Stralman last summer, the team that is able to look past the average offensive stats and recognize the value he's able to bring in versatility and driving possession will be rewarded with a top six, two way forward that would be a key cog for the Sabres in the both the short and long-term.
And if not Frolik? This is where things get tricky, as there's a lack of natural RWs on both the UFA and trade market that are both attainable and would be upgrades over the Sabres' current stable of forwards. For example, Patrick Sharp and T.J. Oshie would be great acquisitions but would cost too much for a Buffalo team that is still early in its rebuild; Joel Ward is already 34 and acquiring him would require Buffalo to hand out a terrible contract; Loui Eriksson among other players has a limited NTC that likely includes the Sabres and so on.
Unlike the other options on this list, this is the one area where I think the Sabres should definitely be targeting a specific player. Given Allan Walsh will likely sell Michael Frolik to the highest bidder, signing Frolik is definitely an attainable goal for the Sabres. But if the Sabres are unable to acquire Frolik, then they should at least try to acquire a veteran LW to be a stopgap solution in the Top 6 like Chris Kunitz from Pittsburgh, who can both contribute and be an additional veteran presence for Eichel and Reinhart next season.
One last note: as great as filling this hole by signing Brandon Saad to an offer sheet would be in theory, there is no chance of that working for Buffalo. The only way Chicago would consider not matching a Buffalo offer sheet would be for the Sabres to sign Kruger at an AAV that would mean Chicago gets multiple first round picks, which would include next year's (i.e., potentially Auston Matthews or Sean Day) as compensation, and that's assuming Saad even decides to sign an offer sheet. Same thing goes for Marcus Kruger in the Sabres' pursuit of...
3. Defensive-minded Center
While Buffalo has one of the strongest pipelines in the NHL at center between Jack Eichel, Samson Reinhart, Zemgus Girgesons, Johan Larsson and Mikhail Grigorenko, the 2015-16 Sabres should also be expected to be very weak in their own zone due to this youth and inexperience at the position unless an additional move or two is made for a center with significant NHL experience. While I would say this makes acquiring a defensive-minded center significantly more important than a top six right winger, the number of options available for an experienced center makes it a lower priority than getting a top six winger.
In a perfect world, this is where Tim Murray figures out how to acquire Ryan O'Reilly without having to give up an exorbitant amount of assets. However, I'm inclined to think Colorado's asking price is going to be too rich for the Sabres' liking until the Avs are up against the gun to move him (i.e., during training camp). The Sabres could also opt to seek out a different 'youngish', top six center option on the trade market (e.g., Brandon Sutter) or moderately overpay a productive veteran like Eric Fehr, Jiri Tlusty or Antoine Vermette to shore up Buffalo's defensive center depth.
However, I'd rather see the Sabres acquire a purely defensive, bottom six center on the cheap to eat up a significant number of the defensive zone starts in the short term, a la Michal Handzus with the Kings during Anze Kopitar's first few years in the league. Whether its acquiring a veteran from a team that needs cap/salary relief (such as R.J. Umberger from the Flyers or Sabres alum Paul Gaustad from Nashville), or giving a UFA veteran a $4-5M, one year deal that can also be a strong veteran influence for the team (such as Shawn Horcoff), both routes would help the Sabres fill a critical short term hole without giving up a large number of assets / cap space.
4. Veteran defenseman
If the season were to start today, the Sabres defense would consist of Zach Bogosian, Rasmus Ristolainen and Mark Psysk on the right side, and Josh Gorges, Nikita Zadorov, Jacob McCabe and Mike Weber on the left. While this is a significant improvement over last season's stable, the Sabres badly need at least one more veteran defenseman in the mix to create competition in camp and give the organization depth for when injuries occur.
Similar to the issue with signing Joel Ward, signing a defenseman already in their mid 30s like Johnny Oduya, Zybnek Michalek or Paul Martin would likely require the Sabres hand out a bad contract. However, I would be more okay with an overpay on defense due to the drop-off in defensive/two-way defenseman options on the UFA and trade markets. That is assuming the contract term for any of the previously mentioned guys is limited to 4 years (i.e., the term that Rob Scuderi and Andrew Ference received in 2013). While the Sabres should be aiming for an addition to the top four, I would also be fine with the Sabres signing a defensive defenseman such as Barret Jackman or Adam McQuaid via UFA, or trading for one such as Mark Stuart or Kevin Klein (the latter potentially being packaged together with Cam Talbot), if they can't acquire one to bolster the top 4.
But please, at the very least, let's not enter next season with any of Jamie McBain, Andrej Meszaros, Andre Benoit and Tyson Strachan as full time NHLers again. These players did wonders for the last two tanks, but it's time to turn a new page on defense.
